We previously had a thread on Bubba Bell that went seriously askew with some unrelated discussion. So I have decided to open up a new thread on Bubba, one that I hope can lead to an intelligent discussion on his projectability.
The topics:
-How do you project Bubba as a player at the MLB level (if at all)?
-What is his ceilng?
-About where would you rank Bubba in your prospect rankings and why?
-Who's the real Bubba Bell? 2007 Version? 2006 Version? 2005 and prior version?
-How much did the Lancaster effect pad his stats? Has he really just improved?
For any posters that have seen him play in Lancaster and Portland this season, anecdotal evidence would be really helpful.
--------------------
Input is welcome from everyone. I apologize if people need to reiterate their sentiments from the prior thread, but that thread just didn't go down the right path, whether that was my fault or not. My apologies for my part in leading that thread down another tangent. Flap and Sbones, your opinions are totally welcome here as well, no hard feelings.
----------------
Here is my analysis:
Bubba has always had solid but not spectacular tools all around. He makes excellent contact, has some power, decent plate discipline, above average speed, a good glove with decent range, and a very good arm. Altogether, I don't have much doubt that Bubba can be an adequate defensive OF at the MLB level. He also has solid fundamentals and a very strong work ethic. His ability to put the bat on the ball is a great tool that hopefully can carry over against advanced pitching, and in my opinion it has so far in a limited sample at AA (see FR9's analysis, which hopefully he will repost here). I think he's shown signficant improvment tools-wise in 2007 regardless of the Lancaster effect. Put all of this together, and to me Bell projects as a solid 4th outfielder at the MLB level, maybe or maybe not for the Red Sox (Red Sox 4th OFs are often players who can start on many other teams ... WMP possibly excluded).
Moreover, IF he can improve his power (or continue his Lancaster trends), than he has the ceiling of being a decent major league starter for a mid-level team. Thats a big IF, particularly considering that Bubba is now 24 and turning 25 this year. But its well accapeted that power is generally the last tool to develop, and its not unheard of for power to develop at that age. From what I saw this spring and from the reports I've read from Lancaster and Portland, Bubba's power is seemingly improved quite a bit since last year, REGARDLESS of the Lancaster Effect. Sure, the Lancaster effect helped, but its my understanding that many of his HRs would have been out in most parks. And his power has not disappeared in Portland, but those results remain to be seen over the course of the season.
Considering all of these factors, this site ranks Bell 18th on the prospect rankings (please note that the rankings are a result of cumulative and occasional voting by the moderators and a few other insiders here, which are adjusted weekly by me with input from those same posters). However, because of some of his weaker showings in 2006 (which from discussions with Bubba were partly due to frustrration from being shuffled back and forth several times between three different levels and struggling to adjust to a new team/level/city on an almost bi-weekly basis) and his age, he does need to demonstrate success over the rest of the season to remain as the 18th ranked prospect. If he is still at .247/.304/.412 at the end of the season, his ranking may fall to the 30-35 range. However, if I had to project it out, I'd put him around .285/.360/.475 at season's end. But thats just my projection. If he's around that level, he'll probably remain ranked in the 18-20 range depending on the other prospects' performances and which of the remaining 2007 draftees sign.
Here are Bubba's career stats through 7/28:
.319/.397/.512/.909
240 Games
930 ABs
194 R
297 H
64 2Bs
8 3Bs
33 HRs
21 SBs
113 BB
112 K
-------------------
Despite some assertions to the contrary, these are very solid ML career stats. Norbit posted some stats in the other thread removing Lancaster from the equation, if he wants to repost those here, that would be a help. I don't really think its fair to remove them totally, but it can act as a control stat removing the Lancaster effect altogher. But then again, his stats were ridiculous there and nobody is projecting Bubba to win the triple crown, so there has to be some discounting. I won't even pretend to have an idea how to fairly discount his Lancaster stats at this stage, with the obvious exception of looking at his home-away splits from the Cali League, which still were very solid (.327/.414/.577 away from Clear Channel).
One other consideration is that Bubba indeed has not been age-appropriate for most levels so far in his pro career. I think this is a valid concern, one worthy of discussion. In my opinion, his tools will carry over to AA this season, where he will be just about age-approriate. The most notbale tool that I feel has and will continue to carry over is his contact rate - he just seems to be able to get the bat on the ball, even against advanced pitching. And even if he starts next season in AA and gets an early promotion to AAA, he's still just about on a good major league track in terms of age.
Altoghether, based on the above analysis, I personally am projecting Bell as a solid 4th OF with the ceiling of being a regular starter for a mid-level team. I think there's a lot of value in such a player, hence he is ranked 18th. Personally, I put more stock into players who are closer to contributing in the majors rather than 16 and 17 year olds at Rookie Ball who haven't proven anything against advanced talent (I've seen all too many such players hyped up and totally flame out). But there are a lot of people who value unproven upside over major-league readiness, and I appreciate that. We've had that discussion every few months here for some time, I don't hope to rehash it here.
This thread is about Bubba Bell. Discuss.
The topics:
-How do you project Bubba as a player at the MLB level (if at all)?
-What is his ceilng?
-About where would you rank Bubba in your prospect rankings and why?
-Who's the real Bubba Bell? 2007 Version? 2006 Version? 2005 and prior version?
-How much did the Lancaster effect pad his stats? Has he really just improved?
For any posters that have seen him play in Lancaster and Portland this season, anecdotal evidence would be really helpful.
--------------------
Input is welcome from everyone. I apologize if people need to reiterate their sentiments from the prior thread, but that thread just didn't go down the right path, whether that was my fault or not. My apologies for my part in leading that thread down another tangent. Flap and Sbones, your opinions are totally welcome here as well, no hard feelings.
----------------
Here is my analysis:
Bubba has always had solid but not spectacular tools all around. He makes excellent contact, has some power, decent plate discipline, above average speed, a good glove with decent range, and a very good arm. Altogether, I don't have much doubt that Bubba can be an adequate defensive OF at the MLB level. He also has solid fundamentals and a very strong work ethic. His ability to put the bat on the ball is a great tool that hopefully can carry over against advanced pitching, and in my opinion it has so far in a limited sample at AA (see FR9's analysis, which hopefully he will repost here). I think he's shown signficant improvment tools-wise in 2007 regardless of the Lancaster effect. Put all of this together, and to me Bell projects as a solid 4th outfielder at the MLB level, maybe or maybe not for the Red Sox (Red Sox 4th OFs are often players who can start on many other teams ... WMP possibly excluded).
Moreover, IF he can improve his power (or continue his Lancaster trends), than he has the ceiling of being a decent major league starter for a mid-level team. Thats a big IF, particularly considering that Bubba is now 24 and turning 25 this year. But its well accapeted that power is generally the last tool to develop, and its not unheard of for power to develop at that age. From what I saw this spring and from the reports I've read from Lancaster and Portland, Bubba's power is seemingly improved quite a bit since last year, REGARDLESS of the Lancaster Effect. Sure, the Lancaster effect helped, but its my understanding that many of his HRs would have been out in most parks. And his power has not disappeared in Portland, but those results remain to be seen over the course of the season.
Considering all of these factors, this site ranks Bell 18th on the prospect rankings (please note that the rankings are a result of cumulative and occasional voting by the moderators and a few other insiders here, which are adjusted weekly by me with input from those same posters). However, because of some of his weaker showings in 2006 (which from discussions with Bubba were partly due to frustrration from being shuffled back and forth several times between three different levels and struggling to adjust to a new team/level/city on an almost bi-weekly basis) and his age, he does need to demonstrate success over the rest of the season to remain as the 18th ranked prospect. If he is still at .247/.304/.412 at the end of the season, his ranking may fall to the 30-35 range. However, if I had to project it out, I'd put him around .285/.360/.475 at season's end. But thats just my projection. If he's around that level, he'll probably remain ranked in the 18-20 range depending on the other prospects' performances and which of the remaining 2007 draftees sign.
Here are Bubba's career stats through 7/28:
.319/.397/.512/.909
240 Games
930 ABs
194 R
297 H
64 2Bs
8 3Bs
33 HRs
21 SBs
113 BB
112 K
-------------------
Despite some assertions to the contrary, these are very solid ML career stats. Norbit posted some stats in the other thread removing Lancaster from the equation, if he wants to repost those here, that would be a help. I don't really think its fair to remove them totally, but it can act as a control stat removing the Lancaster effect altogher. But then again, his stats were ridiculous there and nobody is projecting Bubba to win the triple crown, so there has to be some discounting. I won't even pretend to have an idea how to fairly discount his Lancaster stats at this stage, with the obvious exception of looking at his home-away splits from the Cali League, which still were very solid (.327/.414/.577 away from Clear Channel).
One other consideration is that Bubba indeed has not been age-appropriate for most levels so far in his pro career. I think this is a valid concern, one worthy of discussion. In my opinion, his tools will carry over to AA this season, where he will be just about age-approriate. The most notbale tool that I feel has and will continue to carry over is his contact rate - he just seems to be able to get the bat on the ball, even against advanced pitching. And even if he starts next season in AA and gets an early promotion to AAA, he's still just about on a good major league track in terms of age.
Altoghether, based on the above analysis, I personally am projecting Bell as a solid 4th OF with the ceiling of being a regular starter for a mid-level team. I think there's a lot of value in such a player, hence he is ranked 18th. Personally, I put more stock into players who are closer to contributing in the majors rather than 16 and 17 year olds at Rookie Ball who haven't proven anything against advanced talent (I've seen all too many such players hyped up and totally flame out). But there are a lot of people who value unproven upside over major-league readiness, and I appreciate that. We've had that discussion every few months here for some time, I don't hope to rehash it here.
This thread is about Bubba Bell. Discuss.
