6/27 ML Gameday Thread: Casey Kelly on the mound

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jsinger121

6/27 ML Gameday Thread: Casey Kelly on the mound

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06/26/09 10:34 PM

Jonathan
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AAA- Pawtucket (Clay Buchholz 5-1 1.93) vs. Syracuse [WAS] (Horacio Ramirez 0-0 1.50) 6:05 pm
AA- Portland (Adam Mills 2-5 6.27) @ New Hampshire [TOR] (Rey Gonzalez 3-4 3.07) 7:05 pm
A+ - Salem (Casey Kelly 1-2 2.51) @ Kinston [CLE] (Russell Young 1-3 5.36) 7:00 pm
A - Greenville (Brock Huntzinger 5-3 3.52) @ Asheville [COL] (Parker Frazier 3-5 5.50) 7:05 pm
SS - Lowell (Ryan Pressly 0-0 0.00) @ Tri-City [COL] (David Duncan 0-0 4.76) 7:05 pm
R - GCL Red Sox (TBA) vs. GCL Orioles (TBA) 12:00 pm
DSL - Red Sox (Raynel Vellette 1-0 2.65) @ San Francisco 10:30 am

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Last Edited By: soxprospects 06/27/09 11:18 AM. Edited 4 times.

Curll84

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06/27/09 7:40 AM

Shit, this is a day for pitching. Buchholz, Kelly, and Brock? Very nice. Also a fan of Pressly, but he's not quite as exciting as the others. Color me excited.

boomshakalaka

#2

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06/27/09 8:16 AM

One more good start from Kelly and he should be up to AA- Portland!

DCRi

#3

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06/27/09 8:25 AM

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Isn't this Kelly's last start this year?

soxprospects

#4

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06/27/09 8:28 AM

Mike Andrews
President & Executive Editor
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The Sox said early July, so I'm guessing that means at least one more start after today. Also keep in mind he's probably lined up as a pitcher for the Futures Game on July 14. Maybe he'll start today then on July 2 and on July 7. That's just speculation on my part.

okin15

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06/27/09 8:31 AM

DCRi wrote:
Isn't this Kelly's last start this year?

It's still unclear. The innings (if ST innings are included) would say it is, but there's a Hazen interview which I still can't find which mentioned something about finishing up at the beginning of July. Either way, he's going to get plenty of time to play SS when winter ball is included.

Also, as much as I would love to see Kelly in AA for one (or two) starts, when I really think about it, it's the fan in me, not the prospect developer, that wants that. It's a lose lose situation. If he pitches well, it's SSS, and if he pitches poorly, it's a blemish which he has not chance to repent for. I believe we'll just have to wait till next year.

ADD: I'm hoping they put the futures game thing to him and say, "hey, you can start Short Stop now, or you can wait till after the all-star futures thing, it's up to you." And I hope he picks futures.

I hope not the RS would not take the Nats lightly and aware of what they did to the Blue Jays & Yankees. Just sweep them by play hard & show the Nats why they're best in AL. -MLBDreams

soxprospects

#6

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06/27/09 8:48 AM

Mike Andrews
President & Executive Editor
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Also, as much as I would love to see Kelly in AA for one (or two) starts, when I really think about it, it's the fan in me, not the prospect developer, that wants that. It's a lose lose situation. If he pitches well, it's SSS, and if he pitches poorly, it's a blemish which he has not chance to repent for. I believe we'll just have to wait till next year.

How would it be a "lose" situation because of small sample size? I'm not saying I'm for it or against it, but that doesn't make sense to me. With that line of thinking, every start looked at individually is meaningless. I don't believe that to be the case, I think you can learn a lot about starting pitchers from a single start - not necessarily from the stats, but from actually watching the game. I think small sample size tends to get blown out of proportion here and used as an excuse too often.

templeUsox

#7

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06/27/09 9:22 AM

Ian
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The GCL Orioles are an abject disaster this season. Sorry.

boomshakalaka

#8

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06/27/09 9:42 AM

I have to agree with soxprospects. I think it would be good for him as he has been quite dominant in both stops this year and if he pitches well tonight it would be a nice reward for him. It would also give him something to look forward to next year and let him see that he is making steps in the right direction towards Fenway.

CZink16

#9

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06/27/09 11:01 AM

Buchholz is on TV today. It doesn't look like this one will get rained out.

"These pretzels are making me thirsty!" - George Costanza

Bates1343

#10

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06/27/09 12:07 PM

Was the GCL game rained out? I know there are projections for thunder and lightning storms of extreme severity.

"Hot Rods announcer just reported that the mascot, a mackerel, just ate the batboy and that now the batboy's clothes are flying out the fishes mouth. Shouldn't that be investigated ?" LCBF

templeUsox

#11

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06/27/09 12:21 PM

Ian
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Doesn't look like it.

jonasi

#12

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06/27/09 12:38 PM

Team	Box	Log
Pawtucket	Box	Log
Portland	Box	Log
Salem	Box	Log
Greenville	Box	Log
Lowell	Box	Log
GCL	Box	Log
DSL	Box	Log

left coast bosox fan

#13

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06/27/09 2:17 PM

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One other factor which will be coming into play with Kelly is the question of how many innings you want a 19 year old to pitch. Our other high schoolers are being piggy backed so we're in relatively uncharted territory here as to how he's being used. The fan in me says let him pitch, the mommy in me says why take a chance.

ADD for clarity: It's not so much the total innings, it's the innings jammed into 3 months.

Last Edited By: left coast bosox fan 06/27/09 2:23 PM. Edited 1 time.

LeftyTG

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06/27/09 3:33 PM

left coast bosox fan wrote:
One other factor which will be coming into play with Kelly is the question of how many innings you want a 19 year old to pitch. Our other high schoolers are being piggy backed so we're in relatively uncharted territory here as to how he's being used. The fan in me says let him pitch, the mommy in me says why take a chance.

ADD for clarity: It's not so much the total innings, it's the innings jammed into 3 months.

The one positive Kelly has going for him is that, given his low walk and hits allowed numbers, he presumably hasn't thrown very many high pitch count innings. There is the school of thought that it isn't so much the number of total innings, it is the amount of work done under stress. Since Kelly has had very very few high stress innings, perhaps the Sox are willing to be a touch more flexible on the total number of innings.

boomshakalaka

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06/27/09 3:38 PM

Agreed LeftyTG. I don't know why "pitch counts" aren't looked at more than "innings pitched" because some people generally throw more pitches per inning than others. I believe pitch count to be more important than innings pitched because that is where the problem would arise, too many pitches.

soxprospects

#16

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06/27/09 4:02 PM

Mike Andrews
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I'm sure the Sox factor in how many pitches they think each pitcher throws per inning on average when they set the innings limit at the start of the season. Over 100 innings, the number of pitches per inning will regress to the average.

left coast bosox fan

#17

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06/27/09 4:07 PM

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Agreed on the pitch count, it's a shame that boxes below AAA don't include that stat. On the other hand, I don't think Kelly's pitch count is as low as you might think. He rarely gets a 1 or 2 pitch out since he's not a power pitcher. Batters are generally laying off the first pitches waiting for something to drive and Kelly usually starts with a high portion of crooked pitches early in counts and gives them little to drive. The few times I've heard announcers giving a pitch count, it was generally higher than I would have thought with the exception of his near perfecto.

ADD: There's always somebody charting pitches. I'd bet a box of Filipino donuts that Hazen & company know exactly how many pitches all of the prospects have thrown.

Last Edited By: left coast bosox fan 06/27/09 4:33 PM. Edited 1 time.

ancientsoxfogey

#18

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06/27/09 6:14 PM

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Yes, but WE don't know!!!!!!

I've been wondering about Kelly's workload all year long. The Sox said 100 innings, then we heard 100 including the 20 in spring training, and now it seems he'll be going something over that if you count the ST innings. You will notice, though, that they routinely pitched him 6 innings once he got into a groove, which is more than they usually do with pitchers his age. I wouldn't be surprised if they had something worked out with him that they would push him like that so that he could get a reasonable amount of time at SS. It's part of what had to be done to be in good faith about letting him try both.

Soxfn24

#19

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06/27/09 6:29 PM

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DSL Sox Blanked 3-0 by San Fran

De La Cruz- 1/4, 2K
Chourio- 1/3
Ugas- 1/2, BB

Vellette (L, 1-1)- 5.0, 4H, 2ER, 4-2 K/BB, 6-2 GO/FO, 2HBP
Cuevas- 3.0, 2H, ER, 2-1 K/BB, HRA

Soxfn24

#20

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06/27/09 6:49 PM

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GCL Sox Fall to Orioles 8-3

Vazquez- 1/4
Blair- 1/4, R
Lora- 2/3, 2R, HR(1), RBI, BB
Schwindenhammer- 1/4, 2K
Garcia- 1/4, E(3)

Consuegra- 2.2, 2H, 3ER, 4-2 K/BB, 3-1 GO/FO, 2HBP, WP
Blackey- 1.1, 0H, 0ER, 3-1 K/BB
Cervenka- 2.0, 0H, 0ER, 0-0 K/BB
Wasielewski (L, 0-1)- 1.2, 4H, 4R, ER, 1-1 K/BB, WP
Mercadante- 0.1, 2H, 0ER, 0-0 K/BB
Lennox- 1.0, 2H, R, 0ER, 1-0 K/BB

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6/27 ML Gameday Thread: Casey Kelly on the mound

6/27 ML Gameday Thread: Casey Kelly on the mound