Red Sox Draft Preview: Part 1 of 8
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soxprospects |
Red Sox Draft Preview |
Lead | ||
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The 2009 MLB Amateur Draft is set to get underway on the evening of June 9, and we will be previewing the draft in seven daily
parts until then, followed by live, up-to-the-minute coverage on Draft Day. In the first segment, we preview the Draft's new prime time format, in addition
to providing some general draft information.
Red Sox Draft Preview: Part 1 of 8
Last Edited By: soxprospects 05/31/09 9:47 PM.
Edited 1 time.
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cantbuyheart |
#1 | |||
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I have nothing of substance to add to this thread except to say THANK YOU! It seems like every time I check the site you guys raise the bar.
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btierney54 |
#2 | |||
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All I say is I hope the sox are smart enought o take tanner roppe in the 2nd or 3rd round!
Kid can absoultly fire it. |
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adiospaydro2005 |
#3 | |||
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Great job, Mike. Please let us know if you anticipate conducting a draft predictions contest for at least the first five rounds for the Red Sox.
Poorest spending of $3 million that I have ever seen.-fcastig 0220
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CWebb6 |
#4 | |||
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Are they showing the draft live on tv this year?
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adiospaydro2005 |
#5 | |||
CWebb6 wrote: As per the Part I of the Draft Preview: This year, the draft is going prime time. The first round will be broadcast live from MLB's Studio 42 on the MLB Network beginning at 6:00 pm ET on Tuesday, June 9. Day One will consist of rounds 1-3, including the supplemental compensation rounds after the first and third rounds. While the first round will be broadcast live on the MLB Network, the remainder of Day One will be broadcast via live video stream on MLB.com, with added coverage on MLB Tonight. Additionally, the draft has now been spread over three days. The latter two days can be followed on MLB.com - Day Two will start at noon on June 10, starting with the fourth round and going approximately through the 30th round, and Day Three will take place on June 11, concluding with the 50th round.
Poorest spending of $3 million that I have ever seen.-fcastig 0220
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soxprospects |
#6 | |||
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Red Sox Draft Preview Part 2: Recent History, Strategy, and
Positional Logjams
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ancientsoxfogey |
#7 | |||
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Excellent summary in part 2, which raises a few issues in my mind:
(1) If there is a potential logjam at Greenville next year, then the idea of signing reasonably well developed college players is a problem, because such players would most logically be playing in Greenville in 2010 (otherwise, you're wasting your staff's time, with 22 and 23 year olds playing in short season ball). Seems like another good reason to continue to load up on prep high-impact type players. (2) In opposition to the potential logjam in Greenville, there may be a bit of a shortage of appropriately prepared players for Salem in 2010. Salem has a fairly weak team this year, it seems, and the problem could continue or get worse next year, unless we see some major improvement out of, especially, some of the position player prospects at Greenville later this summer. That's sort of ironic considering the recent discussion about ADDING an A+ team to the Sox system. Now if the Sox were in a 2005 situation, where they had lots of high picks, they might be able to get some help for Salem in 2010 by selecting college players, the highest of whom might help in A+ by sometime in 2010. But they aren't, so the org. is going to have to get by the best it can. (3) If there are limits on room at Lowell and Greenville levels, , maybe the Sox aren't going to sign as many players this year as they have in recent drafts. That might seem to make more money available for the high-upside signability picks that everybody likes. But if other organizations decide to draft and spend on signability players out of a sense that farm development is the best way to go in tighter economic times, then we might get rights to fewer of them, and/or we might have to try to draft more over-slot players earlier in the draft. |
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Lightning Show |
#8 | |||
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This Draft Preview stuff is excellent...I am absolutely giddy to dissect and argue about the draft for a solid month...I hope the Sox spend 15 million.
"Jerry Remy Stunk" - Dustin Pedroia
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DCRi |
#9 | |||
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I looked through the drafts from 1999 through 2008 and the conclusions one reaches from that buttress your excellent review of the Sox draft history and
changes in philosophy.
As of today there are 99 players in the Sox system, incuding the major league team, who were drafted by the Sox. Of those, only 15 are from the drafts 1999-2004, and only nine still are in the minors. Seventy of the 99 are from the 2006-2008 drafts. I also was struck by the fact that the number of draftees (whether they signed or not) who have reached the majors is a very low percentage of the total drafted. Eight from 1999 and six from 2000 reached the majors. Only four out of each draft from 2001 through 2004 have reached the majors. The 2005 and 2006 drafts have been better and probably will have much better results over the next couple of years. However, out of all the drafts only five so far have reached "elite" status (if only for a short time): Sanchez, Youkilis, Lester, Paps and Pedroia. I am not counting Ellsbury here, yet. So, while there have been some notable players from the farm system, the success rate really is very low. There certainly are some real posssibilities among the players still in the minors from recent drafts. Drafting and developing players is a very complex and challenging task with so many variables that achieving even a handful of major successes probably is just about the best that can be done. |
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buffs44444 |
#10 | |||
Lightning Show wrote:Agree with this completely. And also following ASF's line of reasoning.....do they shift from quantity to quality when it comes to tough signs? Using 2008 as an example, do they forgo signing several groups of Carson Blair's and pool all that money instead towards a few Alex Meyer's? Again though, excellent stuff guys, thank you! |
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Nolson20 |
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Lightning Show wrote:I would be prepared to be disappointed I would think. I highly doubt we spend 15 million. |
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edwardcc |
#12 | |||
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I got scolded last year when I suggested that I predicted the Sox would spend $10 million. 15 would be a big jump though.
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Nolson20 |
#13 | |||
edwardcc wrote: I don't see where we could fit that many players unless we added another minor league affiliate. I guess we could sign $15 million of bonus babies but that is unlikely. We will see though I guess. |
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johnsilver62 |
#14 | |||
edwardcc wrote:Wouldn't bother me if the Sox spent upwards of 15-20M, drafted, then signed multiple so called "unsignable" guys in the middle-late rounds and let that stick hard in Selig's slot system craw. |
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Hairps |
#15 | |||
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I'm as giddy as temple at a Central New Jersey Renaissance Faire.
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Lightning Show |
#16 | |||
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I think they could easily spend 15 million. The extra five mill could be spent just on high profile kids who fall because they are "unsignable." I
put nothing past this organization, if they see value, they will spend and Bud Selig can screw himself and his slot system.
"Jerry Remy Stunk" - Dustin Pedroia
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soxprospects |
#17 | |||
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$15M is not absolutely out of of the realm of possibility, but let's not be disappointed when it doesn't happen. In other words, let's not be the
greedy little fat kid that just wants more and more cake every year. After all, the Sox did set a record last year and we are in a recession. More than
likely I'd expect the team to spend in the same range as last year's draft.
Last Edited By: soxprospects 06/02/09 5:48 PM.
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AMarshal2 |
#18 | |||
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I'm expecting them to be well south of last year. Not only might signing bonuses be down across MLB giving the Sox more leverage but this draft is not as
good as last year's.
aminahyaquin: Alou is a 37 year old 7 time MVP with a .347 lifetime batting average and a world of hustle. he
can golden glove field in his sleep.
tGG: Alou is actually 42, has never won an MVP, has a .303 lifetime batting average, and is mediocre at best in the field. joshv02: But, other than that, you're wrong. |
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adiospaydro2005 |
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While I agree that the recession may have some impact on signing bonuses, the Red Sox also recognize that they need to have a strong farm system in order to be
competitive every year. I suspect that the "log jam" which has been referred to by others may be freed up as some of those players may be traded
this year to allow the Red Sox to acquire a couple of hitters that they sorely need if they have any desire to make the 2009 playoffs. I suspect that the
philosphy will continue to sign some high risk/high reward guy, perhaps even more than in prior years. as there are a lot of holes within the major league
roster that will need to be filled within the next two or three years.
Poorest spending of $3 million that I have ever seen.-fcastig 0220
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ziggyosk41 |
#20 | |||
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Great Preview so far Mike. You bring up an interesting point that I mentioned a few weeks ago in the Draft Strategy Thread about the logjam in the lower
levels. It will be interesting to see who they draft this year and ultimately sign. I think what will probably happen is you will see very few
"Filler" type college players taken(or signed as UFA's) compared with previous years because those players are not needed as much anymore with
all the prospects in Lowell and the GCL.
Here are the stats of payers taken from our draft going back to 2003 when Theo really took over. College Players Signed: 2003: 24 2004: 26 2005: 21 2006: 22 2007: 14 2008: 15 JC Players Signed: 2003: 5 2004: 1 2005: 4 2006: 1 2007: 4 2008: 2 HS Players Signed: 2003: 3 2004: 2 2005: 7 2006: 6 2007: 10 2008: 12 College Players Signed After the 10th round: 2003: 17 2004: 18 2005: 14 2006: 13 2007: 10 2008: 9 UFA's Signed: 2003: 5 2004: 15 2005: 13 2006: 5 2007: 4 2008: 2 As you can see the Sox have signed less College players almost every year, with especially less college players in the 10th round or later which usually is a sign they will not be impact players. They've signed significantly less UFA's as they did in the earlier years, and they've signed more HS players almost every year. So hopefully this means if there is a potential logjam the Sox will solve that problem by continuing to sign less "Filler" type guys. As far as another Minor league team...I don't think it will ever happen but if it were to happen it would make more sense to get another Low A team, as that seems where a logjam would occur. As far as money goes I expect them to spend around what they did last year, maybe a little more, somewhere in the $8-12 mill range. |
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