I'd personnaly slot Kelly in at #11, and here's why.

Kalish and Lin are both holding their own two levels above Kelly while being 2 and 1 year older than him respectively. Even though Kelly would profile to have a higher ceiling than either of them, the positional uncertainty and the inherent inadequacies of scouting 18 year old high schoolers knocks him below them, IMO.

Bard is of course much older, but he is holding his own at AA with a 98 MPH fastball, a developing curve, and a repeatable delivery. Given the progress he's made in just the last 12 months, you have to be excited about his future.

Place has made dramatic strides and is three full levels above him while being only two years older. The numbers and first person accounts indicate he is making progress on his issues and he is certainly holding his own at this advanced level.

As for Almanzar, by all accounts, a $1.5MM bonus in the DR last year would be equivalent to a $2.0-2.5MM bonus this year given the inflation we've seen. Though it's a very SSS, he is clearly not overmatched in the GCL, is showing pretty good plate awareness and is flashing some power too at the tender age of 17.

I think the Rozier situation should be instructive as to whether going well above projected slot (as opposed to actual slot - Rozier was a consensus 3rd round talent picked int he 12th but paid like a mid-1st rounder) is a consistently viable indicator of actual expected value. We've signed many over-slot guys in recent years, but those bonuses were generally consistent with what their talent was projected to be. For example, Lars got $900K, which is pretty consistent with the 1s round talent people thought he had.

Anyway, that's one man's take - would like to hear Mike's POV.