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Trade Deadline Thread

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OCD SS		#181	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 398 07/14/08 12:50 PM Veteran Member	jspearlj1 wrote: Oh, my bad, I didn't realize you didnt believe that. I was wrong! I think the point of contention is that "he's sure to give us a .750 OPS and plus defense" and in that I think Southern is trying to say that there's no way it's a sure thing. I don't see how it's inconceiveable that a player who's hitting .216/ .264/ .329 this year after hitting .254/ .291/ .468 last year might be toast. His line drive rate is nice enough, but if they're all soft line drives then isn't it a fairly simple step to suggest that pitchers are going after him more often because they know he can't really hurt them, and his results are showing it? He's hitting worse on the road this season, .645 to .526 (OPS). If you look deeper into his road splits, you'll notice that his career road OPS of .808 is propped up by having 41 really good games in Coors (good for an 1.049 OPS). He's played there more than any other field other than Petco. It could be a fluke, but by the same token he doesn't look like a great candidate to improve his OPS by over .150 points, and he needs to improve it by close to .90 points just to match Lugo's suckitude, which is at least OBP heavy. That's not to say that I wouldn't at least consider dealing Lugo for him straight up, but it would only be to clear some of Lugo's money from the books, not because I think Greene will actually contribute anything. *"I'd like to fck Sandra Bullock"** - Pedro, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
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krovvysox		#182	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 360 07/14/08 12:51 PM Veteran Member	"Hi, is this Daniel Bard? Hi, my name's Craig Hansen. Listen, I've got great news for you...."
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JimRiceRocks		#183	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 547 07/14/08 1:07 PM Veteran Member	krovvysox wrote: "Hi, is this Daniel Bard? Hi, my name's Craig Hansen. Listen, I've got great news for you...." Exactly "Like bouncing titties. Sure tits have stats/specs, but you cant really quantify a good pair, but anyone who has seen a good pair will tell you there are unmeasurable intangbles about them. But if they don't work with the rest of the body (like they are too big or something), you can get a breast reduction to make them fit perfectly well with, say, a petitte body. Addition by subtraction." - Vendrell
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jspearlj1		#184	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4711 07/14/08 1:18 PM	isn't it a fairly simple step to suggest that pitchers are going after him more often because they know he can't really hurt them, and his results are showing it? Ah, the Ellsbury adjustment... except he hit 27 HR last year... with half his games in PetCo. The guy's BABIP is about 70 points lower then it should be. There's some cause for concern about the lack of power, but still, the guy has historically been a 730 OPS hitter playing in the most extreme pitcher's park in baseball. What's crazy about adding 20 OPS points to that? The only cause for concern I have is that in the guy's age 28 season the guy has lost around 100 points of ISO. However, I have a really hard time believing that a guy will collapse in his age 28 season after giving 4 seasons of a set baseline performance with very little variance. Sure its not a guarantee he will be a 750 OPS hitter here, however I really believe the evidence is stronger in the case for him being that player rather than against. Especially since the case against is about pointing to a half season of bad luck performance and pointing out that he plays some road games in Coors. "I'll buy you a beer while we talk about our favorite 17 year old Dominicans while everyone around us thinks we are pedophiles" - Chach.
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templeUsox		#185	[url]	[-]
Moderator Veteran Member Posts: 12152 07/14/08 1:26 PM Moderator	Are you guys purposely highlighting your posts? What's going on here? BRING REESE HOME
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alnipper		#186	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 104 07/14/08 1:48 PM Veteran Member	Internally I'd consider Jones, Lentz, and Zink as possible bullpen possibilities.
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norbit14		#187	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2030 07/14/08 1:58 PM Veteran Member	The bullpen will be ok with Masterson coming to the rescue. If I would consider trading for a relief pitcher the only one out there I might have interest is Damaso Marte, he comes at low cost(hopefully) and has shown the ability to pitch in the AL also has good stuff. After suffering through Gagne last year I hope we learn the lesson and solve the problem from within. Boston doesn't deserve me.
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TNS		#188	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3272 07/14/08 2:02 PM	templeUsox wrote: Are you guys purposely highlighting your posts? What's going on here? Occasionally the spellcheck function will do that to parts of a post.
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ancientsoxfogey		#189	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2890 07/14/08 3:06 PM Veteran Member	"Hi, is this Craig Hansen?? You don't know me, but my name's Cla Meredith. I've got some great news ....."
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Tundy19		#190	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 141 07/14/08 3:50 PM	Hansens and Bard's situations are not exactly apples to apples insofar as the adjustments they had to make are concerned. Hansen was a big time college reliever with a major league-ready slider who had to apparently adjust his slider to a different-sized baseball a la what Ryan Wagner struggled with. His difficulty has largely been using his breaking pitches effectively and reducing the walks. Bard was plain wild at first, had to develop a solid breaking pitch, and now has had to adjust from starting to relieving. Anyways, I have to think that if youre looking for internal relief options besides Masterson, Bard's name has to be in the conversation. His walk totals and WHIP are still too high for me, but you have to like the strikeout totals and opposing batting avg (.184, though he could stand to lower the oba with RISP). The guy basically gives up either a hit or walk, then strikes out a couple of guys each inning worked. Far from perfect, but if you're gonna say that Lentz, Jones, and Zink should be considered, then I argue Bard cant be left out.
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Nolson20		#191	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 42 07/14/08 4:48 PM	norbit14 wrote: The bullpen will be ok with Masterson coming to the rescue. If I would consider trading for a relief pitcher the only one out there I might have interest is Damaso Marte, he comes at low cost(hopefully) and has shown the ability to pitch in the AL also has good stuff. After suffering through Gagne last year I hope we learn the lesson and solve the problem from within. I agree, I am hoping Masterson can solidify the bullpen. If he can't, then I am going with Temple on this and see how far the team, as it currently stands, can take us. I would hate to give up valuable prospects, especially this offseason when many of those can go to long term replacements for guys like Varitek and possibly Manny.
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ancientsoxfogey		#192	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2890 07/14/08 5:26 PM Veteran Member	If Masterson is going to get the first chance to help out, and I presume he is, he figures to need at least a little more time at Pawtucket -- and they are in their AS break at this time also. I don't expect him with the major league club while the Sox are on the west coast, and I don't expect him to be brought up to face the Yankees, since they more than almost anybody can line up LH against him. That means I expect to see him at most 4 days prior to July 31. No real time to tell if he is a real stud addition to the pen or not before the deadline. Therefore, it seems to me that if a pen deal is made this month it has to be made independent of what Masterson, or any other internal option, might show. The "let's see if the farm can help out first and then go outside if we have to" option doesn't really exist. It may be that if the Sox commit to the farm first they will end up following Temple's guidance because they will have relatively little choice.
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OCD SS		#193	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 398 07/14/08 5:34 PM Veteran Member	jspearlj1 wrote: Ah, the Ellsbury adjustment... except he hit 27 HR last year... with half his games in PetCo. The guy's BABIP is about 70 points lower then it should be. There's some cause for concern about the lack of power, but still, the guy has historically been a 730 OPS hitter playing in the most extreme pitcher's park in baseball. What's crazy about adding 20 OPS points to that? The only cause for concern I have is that in the guy's age 28 season the guy has lost around 100 points of ISO. However, I have a really hard time believing that a guy will collapse in his age 28 season after giving 4 seasons of a set baseline performance with very little variance. Sure its not a guarantee he will be a 750 OPS hitter here, however I really believe the evidence is stronger in the case for him being that player rather than against. Especially since the case against is about pointing to a half season of bad luck performance and pointing out that he plays some road games in Coors. I think the case against him is a bit better than that: he did manage to SLG .468 last year, but it also came with a .291 OBP. I'm much more inclined to think that his SLG in '07 was a fluke and that we could be seeing him crash and burn at a young age. Sure his home park isn't helping any, but it's not out of the realm of possiblility that a guy who had a good season doesn't ever put it all back together. I think his BABIP goes towards him being toast: he's never had a really good BABIP; it's just not in his skill set. Let's just look at his road splits from his good year in '04 when he had a respectable .305 on the season (.327 on the road, .283 at Petco): '05: .277 (actually .285 at home) '06: .280 '07: .296 '08: .270 (so far). I don't see how you can project him to hit for a ~.310 BABIP, which is what he would need to do to meet your projections. And none of this takes into account whether or not the Padres would give him up (with them not having a good option at SS and Greene signed next year for only $6.5M), or what you'd have to give them for what is at best a lateral move from Lugo. When you add in a good prospect, I don't see how it's not a downgrade overall. templeUsox wrote: Are you guys purposely highlighting your posts? What's going on here? I cut and pasted the batting lines from BB-Ref, and for some reason they stayed highlighted as I kept typing. Apparently it spread to JSinger's post through the quote function like some bizarre internet infection... and it won't go away... *"I'd like to fck Sandra Bullock"** - Pedro, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
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jspearlj1		#194	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4711 07/14/08 5:57 PM	I'm much more inclined to think that his SLG in '07 was a fluke and that we could be seeing him crash and burn at a young age His Iso was up by about 20-30 points in 08 compared to his 3 year average (which was amazingly stable). So just because a guy has a tick upward in his age 27 season in slugging he's all of a sudden going to burn out at a young age... the game of baseball would be in pretty bad shape if that logic were true. Please give me a reason to expect him to crash and burn. it's one thing to give evidence that his numbers this year are more than bad luck, but so far I havene't seen any. he's never had a really good BABIP; it's just not in his skill set Playing in a pitcher's park will naturally bring your BABIP down, sure it could be against his skill set to turn LD into hits, but that makes a lot less sense than his park hurting him. He has enough power to turn LD into hits and he's no slouch in the speed department either. There's some truth to my theory since his home babip is 261 vs 299 on the road for his career. Give him those 30 points of babip he's missing at home over his career (which at this point I dont see how you can debate its NOT his home park suppressing his BABIP) and he'd have the 750 OPS I've been saying he'd have. The 310 BABIP he should have is based on this year's LD rate which is a bit higher than usual for him. The truth is what's really hurting him this year is not just bad luck, but that his power has gone a bit as well, he's dropped about 60-80 Iso points this year and that's a very hard thing to explain. It could be injury, it could be league adjustments it could be fluke, but since he's had a 4 year baseline with which to base conclusions off of, its far more likely that his drop in slugging is a fluke (as evidenced by a HR/FB rate that is almost half of his career ratio). His average WARP is right around 5, Lugo's for the past 2 1/2 seasons' average is around 2.. at best a lateral move? And oh yeah, that's not involving any translating of Greene's stats to reflect his home park's negative effects on his value. Look, I'm open to criticism of my analysis here, but so far I've seen no argument that has given me any pause. Give me a scouting take on his struggles this year or numbers to prove why its more than a fluky bad year, but I have yeat to see anything to make me think that what he's going through is anything more than PetCo hurting him and bad luck. "I'll buy you a beer while we talk about our favorite 17 year old Dominicans while everyone around us thinks we are pedophiles" - Chach.
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soxcentral		#195	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 816 07/14/08 6:06 PM Veteran Member	Playing in a pitcher's park will naturally bring your BABIP down, sure it could be against his skill set to turn LD into hits, but that makes a lot less sense than his park hurting him. I don't exactly understand this logic. Petco is a pitcher's park because of its size, which leaves more room for balls in play to fall in for hits, not less. It is primarily considered a pitchers park because it is hard to hit home runs. And HR's don't affect BABIP, correct? I would expect BABIP to be higher in a so-called pitchers park, not lower. Not trying to be an ass, just trying to follow your side of the argument a little better.
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TokenWilliams		#196	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 125 07/14/08 6:34 PM	I probably wouldn't bring Bard up until September either. Since Schilling is on the DL we dont need to have a pitcher on the Roster prior to September 1 in order to add him to the Post Season roster. You're right, Bard probably isn't ready, however don't be shocked if he gets a look this year. He's in AA, Papelbon went from A/AA to the majors his first season. I prefer someone that throws absolute gas and can K people out of the pen. The confidence issue talk is worrisome, but a lot has changed since 2007. He has his warts, but from an internal solution I still feel he's one of our most promising options. Jones 88-91 MPH w/ a .276 BA agaist in AAA. I'm not going to rip on the guy because I think he can be a valuable piece to someones bullpen, but he seems more like a righty specialist at the moment. Does that help the Red Sox and their problems right now? Lentz - I just dont understand why people laugh at Bard and want to see the guy that has 4 innings of work in AA? Bard isn't ready but Lentz is? Am I missing something? For the record I would rather see Lentz than Jones. Lentz throws much harder, but if you need to see more of Bard in AA followed by AAA then Lentz is about a month and a half behind Bard. Zink - I'm sorry - he's pitching unbelievably, but I dont want another Knuckleballer on the roster. I especially don't see a Knuckleballer fixing the bullpen issues. So yea, come September or late August if Bard continues his progression and the Sox still need help in the pen I want to see him throw some innings. I mean seriously, the only real realistic options are Masterson, MDC stepping up his game a bit and starting to dominate like they need him to with Oki struggling or Ardsma. Other than that. They are in trouble. I guess Oki is a realistic option, but he shocked me last year I don't expect it to happen again.
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jspearlj1		#197	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4711 07/14/08 6:44 PM	A HR doesn't discount your BABIP, but a FB does, hence if you're park suppresses HR by way of a FB then you're BABIP gets negatively effected. However its more the fact that the air currents in that stadium are fairly suppressing. Most of Greene's HR are to LF but anything hit into the air at less than missle speed (in RF especially) quickly gets knocked down by air currents or what have you. Coors field is the other way, even though it is larger than PetCo it helps hitters out because the ball travels so much better there. In fact PetCo's dimensions are pretty neutral, its the environmental effects that effect the players. "I'll buy you a beer while we talk about our favorite 17 year old Dominicans while everyone around us thinks we are pedophiles" - Chach.
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OCD SS		#198	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 398 07/14/08 7:23 PM Veteran Member	jspearlj1 wrote: His Iso was up by about 20-30 points in 08 compared to his 3 year average (which was amazingly stable). So just because a guy has a tick upward in his age 27 season in slugging he's all of a sudden going to burn out at a young age... the game of baseball would be in pretty bad shape if that logic were true. Please give me a reason to expect him to crash and burn. it's one thing to give evidence that his numbers this year are more than bad luck, but so far I haven't seen any. And I haven't seen any evidence that taking him out of Petco will magically transform him to what his career road numbers say he is. I'm looking at his last year and a half, and over that time he's gone from not very good to out-right bad, some of it may be bad luck, and maybe he'll rebound, but I wouldn't bet prospects on it. We're looking at a low BA guy who doesn't walk much and derives all his value as a hitter from his power. When you add to that a low BABIP despite an uptick in his LDs, I'm not saying none of it is luck, but there are red flags that could indicate we could be looking for his black box in the near future. Playing in a pitcher's park will naturally bring your BABIP down, sure it could be against his skill set to turn LD into hits, but that makes a lot less sense than his park hurting him. He has enough power to turn LD into hits and he's no slouch in the speed department either. There's some truth to my theory since his home babip is 261 vs 299 on the road for his career. Give him those 30 points of babip he's missing at home over his career (which at this point I dont see how you can debate its NOT his home park suppressing his BABIP) and he'd have the 750 OPS I've been saying he'd have. The numbers I quoted were his road BABIP splits; and on the road he's still posting a below average BABIP. My point is that even when he's on the road, his skill set hasn't lead to him hitting for a high BABIP, so IMO it's unreasonable to assume that the uptick in his LD% will translate to an exact corresponding jump in his overall production. You seem to want to use his career numbers, but his career doesn't really point to him being a good overall hitter. It could be as simple as the "line drives" he's hitting aren't all that hard (like Lugo); where are you getting your LD #'s? If he's hitting alot of soft balls like the one that ended yesterday's game it wouldn't lead me to expect a rebound... Look, I'm open to criticism of my analysis here, but so far I've seen no argument that has given me any pause. Give me a scouting take on his struggles this year or numbers to prove why its more than a fluky bad year, but I have yeat to see anything to make me think that what he's going through is anything more than PetCo hurting him and bad luck. Again, I'm basing everything on his road numbers. His road OPS so far this year is .526. If we import that to the Sox, do you think is his uptick in LD% going to cause him to gain ~200 points in OPS? His average WARP is right around 5, Lugo's for the past 2 1/2 seasons' average is around 2.. at best a lateral move? And oh yeah, that's not involving any translating of Greene's stats to reflect his home park's negative effects on his value. It's a lateral move if your hypothesis about his LD rate doesn't pan out and the Sox are starting a player with a sub .300 OBP (you know, like he has now despite being better at Petco this year); at least Lugo get's on base at a steady clip... which does bring us to what you expect to happen to Lugo, and who the Sox are giving up for Greene. I suspect those things make this entire argument pointless. *"I'd like to fck Sandra Bullock"** - Pedro, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
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Bosox301		#199	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1146 07/14/08 7:32 PM	norbit14 wrote: The bullpen will be ok with Masterson coming to the rescue. If I would consider trading for a relief pitcher the only one out there I might have interest is Damaso Marte, he comes at low cost(hopefully) and has shown the ability to pitch in the AL also has good stuff. After suffering through Gagne last year I hope we learn the lesson and solve the problem from within. Marte won't come at a low cost as he is expected to be a Type A free agent after the season. So, the Pirates will want a couple of good prospects for him in order to give up their draft compensation. On the flip side, a team that acquires Marte for a couple of good prospects could replace those prospects with Marte's draft compensation. Nevertheless, as a Type A free agent, he won't come cheap. Complicating the matter is the Pirates own situation. They are one winning streak away from a .500 mark, which is their ultimate goal this season, and with Capps out, they are short on quality relief pitchers. You don't want Tyler Yates closing games for you. I don't want the Red Sox to trade prospects for a relief pitcher either. They should go with what they have and hope that Masterson can pick up some of the slack. I don't like trading for relief pitchers--the old Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell deal I suppose--but I do support trading prospects for a first rate defensive SS. "If I was a GM and I was trading with somebody and I knew I was going to get minor leaguers in return, I'd come to our organization before I went to anyone else. Everybody that comes out of our organization knows how to play the game." --Josh Beckett Last Edited By: Bosox301 07/14/08 7:37 PM. Edited 2 times.
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Haddock Field		#200	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 85 07/14/08 7:41 PM	TokenWilliams wrote: You're right, Bard probably isn't ready, however don't be shocked if he gets a look this year. He's in AA, Papelbon went from A/AA to the majors his first season. I prefer someone that throws absolute gas and can K people out of the pen. Papelbon spent his first full season in A+. It wasn't till the following year that he made the AA/AAA/MLB jump. But Papelbon had much better command and better secondary stuff than Bard. Bard still needs a lot of work and I'll be somewhat surprised if he makes it to Pawtucket this year, let alone Boston.
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