Well, he's already graduated as a prospect, but he's only 24, so I figured we could talk about Dustin Pedroia today. He's got 9 homeruns and 9
steals on the season so far, something we never even saw in the minors. Can we project him as a 20 homer-20 steal guy, or did he just have a good June to boost
those numbers?
0 Kudo
Dustin Pedroia
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 incarnarus |
Dustin Pedroia |
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Rookie
Posts: 61 07/03/08 7:22 AM |
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AMarshal2 |
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Moderator Veteran Member
Posts: 7562 07/03/08 9:01 AM Moderator |
I remember at least a few of those steals as the back end of double steals with Jacoby. He's not fast so if he ever gets to 20 steals it will be a fluke.
The last steal I saw he was easily beat by the throw but then managed to avoid the tag. It's safe to say there's nothing there on the speed end. As for
the power...yeah, maybe he could hit 20 but I'd rather have the 2007 Pedroia that didn't swing at everything, struck out less, and walked a whole bunch
more.
"Since I stole that base I have not gone one day -- not one -- without someone coming and saying 'thank you.' You may never experience that, and I have it for life." -Dave Roberts
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TEXS31 |
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Veteran Member
Posts: 1362 07/03/08 9:21 AM |
I'll "soften" AMarsh's stance and say that, while maybe not a fluke, it will be on brains not speed (obviously). He's a very smart
baserunner, it seems. I'm just waiting for the day when he pulls a couple of delayed steals (ala Varitek).
If you figure he could get 5-10 on his own; another 5-10 trailing Jacoby and then sprinkle in some delayed steals, he could get there some season. |
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ChuckZ |
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Rookie
Posts: 61 07/03/08 9:24 AM |
I'm sorry, but I just don't see Dustin hitting 20 hr. As much as I would like to, I see his power settling somewhere in the 10-12 hr range, 30-40
doubles to go along with it. As far as his steals go, I see him probably being right around 10 for a normal year also. Of course you're going to have out
fluky seasons where he'll be higher, but I just don't see 20-20 in his future.
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 templeUsox |
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Moderator Veteran Member
Posts: 12152 07/03/08 9:26 AM Moderator |
I think he has a chance at 20-20, but it will be fluky and hard to repeat.
BRING REESE HOME
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electriceye |
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Veteran Member
Posts: 130 07/03/08 9:30 AM |
He doesn't have the tools to be anywhere near 20/20. I doubt he can steal 11 bags in the second half, nor do I want him trying and running into outs. The
20 homerun half is possible though, although he probably won't get there most years.
I'll agree about wanting the 2007 version of Pedroia. I'm just hoping we can get the walks back and the strikeouts again with him. |
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incarnarus |
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Rookie
Posts: 61 07/03/08 10:00 AM |
Well, I ,mean part of it is that he has flashed the doubles power, and I'm wondering if maybe a few of those doubles might just be going out nowadays. As
for the steals, I guess one thing to consider is that he hasn't been caught this season. So, even if half his steals are on the tail-end of a Jacoby
double-steal, atleast we know that he isn't going to be running too often, but rather that he will know when to run.
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Cem21 |
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Moderator Veteran Member
Posts: 1255 07/03/08 10:43 AM Veteran Member |
As for the steals: Pedroia is probably not going to be a consistent 20 steal guy. I agree with the thoughts of him being 7-10 steals on average as he is a
smart baserunner and will benefit from double steals with Ellsbury. If he can pick his spots and surprise the other team, he probably could bump it up around
12 or so.
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BriantheTaoist |
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Veteran Member
Posts: 1512 07/03/08 12:38 PM |
The one thing I've never understood about people's projections of Pedroia is the lack of projection for him adding a little power. He's short, so
he's never going to be a power hitter, but he's only 24, just entering into the stage when the muscles get a little stronger and the power starts
reaching toward the peak. I see no reason why he won't be in the mid-teens for the next few years and reach 20 a few times. That's not
difference-making power, but it's a little pop.
I get the "he's as good as he's going to be" view of him as a hitter in terms of BA, etc, and I'm not thrilled with the worsening K/BB this year, but adding power is at least partly a physical thing, and he still has a bit of strengthening to do. Some folks always acted like he's an older prospect, when he's always been young. Steals though ... nope. He's a slow dude. Weird guy to watch run; it doesn't seem like he's slow - he seems to be moving everything quickly - but he just isn't going forward all that fast. He's always looked vaguely like a cartoon character to me when he runs, like the laws of physics weren't working quite right. |
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MAYERalumn |
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Rookie
Posts: 29 07/03/08 1:12 PM |
Wow. Some of you people are pretty tough on him. He is the 6th hardest guy to strike out in all of baseball this year. Those of you wanting more of the
"2007" Dusty with more walks and less strikeouts are pretty greedy.
As for the walks... the reason he had more walks last year was because he didnt bat 2nd until the end of the year. Batting 2nd, pitchers go after him because Oritz (now Drew) and Manny are hitting behind him. They dont want to walk him. They are giving him pitches to hit, so he is taking advantage. As for the 20-20 potential. I definately wouldnt doubt him. People have been doing that his whole life and he keeps proving them wrong. Sure, he doesn't look like a 20-20 guy, but I would never bet against him. He gets his steals on smarts not speed. As for the HRs, he never gets cheated on a swing, and benefits on some pop-ups that clear the Monster. 20 homers is definately a possibilty, although I wouldn't count on it or expect it. |
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templeUsox |
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Moderator Veteran Member
Posts: 12152 07/03/08 1:21 PM Moderator |
MAYERalumn wrote: You may have a point here: 2007:Pre ASB: 242 AB's, 30/22 BB/K Post ASB: 278 AB's, 17/20 BB/K BTW, welcome to the site MAYERalumn.
BRING REESE HOME
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TheGoldenGreek33 |
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Veteran Member
Posts: 1651 07/03/08 1:29 PM Veteran Member |
edit: temple beat me to it.
"Folks, the re-emergence of infection as a dangerous pandemic is going to be one of the most important societal stories of at least the
first half of the 21st century." ~ ASF
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MAYERalumn |
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Rookie
Posts: 29 07/03/08 1:30 PM |
templeUsox wrote: Thanks Temple! Long time reader of Soxprospects.com, but my first post. |
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AMarshal2 |
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Moderator Veteran Member
Posts: 7562 07/03/08 1:42 PM Moderator |
Let's not act like being objective or critiquing a player's preformance is being greedy. Lots of the posters on this board have followed Dustin's
career since he was drafted (or longer) and have been fans/supporters of his in times of doubt since then.
Anyways, since I alluded to the facts but didn't actually post them, here they are. Dustin's BB/PA and K/PA every stop AAA /MLB (in order from oldest to most recent):
He's posting the worst BB% and worst K% of his career. I don't think it's out of line to point it out and hope that he can return to form. I'd definitely like to see him swing at better pitches. That said, he's posting a .819 OPS, so he is doing very well overall.
"Since I stole that base I have not gone one day -- not one -- without someone coming and saying 'thank you.' You may never experience that, and I have it for life." -Dave Roberts
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AMarshal2 |
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Moderator Veteran Member
Posts: 7562 07/03/08 1:46 PM Moderator |
While the 2 hole thing may explain the walking to some extent, it does not explain the K's. Looking at least year, he spent the majority of his PA's in
the 2 hole where he posted a 6.4% BB/PA and a 7.4% K/PA. The numbers support the notion that there could possibly be something real there with the 2 hole but
that it probably doesn't account for everything.
"Since I stole that base I have not gone one day -- not one -- without someone coming and saying 'thank you.' You may never experience that, and I have it for life." -Dave Roberts
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MAYERalumn |
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Posts: 29 07/03/08 2:12 PM |
Here are some interesting facts that support my statement...
2007 Season When batting leadoff... 12 bb / 9 so When batting SECOND 18 bb / 21 so When batting ninth 16 bb / 10 so So when not batting 2nd, he had 28/19 bb/k ratio. He was more selective. In contrast, when batting 2nd he had more k's than walks from pitchers being more aggressive and therefore, his approach is more aggressive as well. He simply is more selective outside the 2 hole and more aggressive when batting 2nd. That is the necessary adjustment. I dont think it is a negative trend or anything negative at all. |
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AMarshal2 |
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Moderator Veteran Member
Posts: 7562 07/03/08 2:17 PM Moderator |
I used those same stats in my two posts only with the context of per AB. Like I said, it looks like the 2 hole has something to do with it but his rates are
still down for the worse this year.
"Since I stole that base I have not gone one day -- not one -- without someone coming and saying 'thank you.' You may never experience that, and I have it for life." -Dave Roberts
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templeUsox |
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Moderator Veteran Member
Posts: 12152 07/03/08 2:20 PM Moderator |
You've got to be careful Aaron. Some of his rates are down this year, not all. I would happily take the slight reduction in rates he has seen if
the up-tick in LD% is real (up 4%).
Right now I think it's too small of a sample size, it might really all just be noise.
BRING REESE HOME
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MAYERalumn |
re: | #18 | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Rookie
Posts: 29 07/03/08 2:43 PM |
AMarshal2 wrote: Yeah, I was just breaking it down by where he batted in the lineup. The way he is swinging the bat lately, I dont want him looking to walk. haha. |
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ancientsoxfogey |
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Veteran Member
Posts: 2890 07/03/08 4:57 PM Veteran Member |
Well, Dustin has upwards of 400 PA, and his walk rate is down about 2% or so, which means - 8 walks. Now 8 walks is 8 walks, but it isn't a monumental
amount - 1 every 10 games or so. Heck, if he keeps hitting the way he has recently, he could pick up much of those 8 in a week. I'm wondering if some of
Dustin's loss of walks doesn't have to do with Dustin so much as it is part of a more general strategy of going after Sox hitters, and to a greater
extent letting what happens happen, rather than trying to nibble and the Sox using their patience to generate a water-torture style of offense. Dustin
isn't the only Sox batter whose walks are down this year. Maybe Sox hitters are less imposing this year and so pitchers are throwing strikes with more
confidence. Maybe it's just the evolution of how other teams generally have decided to deal with the Sox offense. Or MAYBE a combination of steroid testing
and good emerging pitching have lead to an overall increase in pitching confidence and a corresponding decrease in BB throughout the sport. RS are certainly
down throughout baseball this year. Are BB down as well??
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klostrophobic |
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Veteran Member
Posts: 2843 07/03/08 5:49 PM Veteran Member |
So Pedroia is hitting exactly .500 in his last 80 plate appearances. God damn. Also a 4/3 BB/K during those 80 PA, to go along with 5 HR, 9 2B/3B.
Postponed: Wind
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