smuck90 wrote:

---

I think we'll be talking about these guys at this time next year: Richardson, Mills, Lentz, Large, Povich, Doubront, Portice, Huntzinger, Britton, and hopefully Pimentel and Castillo. We might have something with a few of these guys, not to mention some of the 2008 draftees.

I'm not at all ready to write off Mills or Richardson.

This isn't directed at you in particular, but Mills, Large, Lentz, Povich, Doubront, and Portice are all good examples of longshot prospects who get overhyped by a prospect-watchers who are still somewhat new to the game. That's not to say these guys don't have a chance of reaching the majors or that they don't have anything going for them; however, it isn't until you stick around for a cycle or two that you truly come to appreciate the scale of attrition that happens. Sure, you can look back at old minor league rosters and numbers, but the names of failed prospects in 2001 won't mean much.

Someone like Chad Povich is having good success this season and has exhibited excellent control. However, he only has decent stuff and he is in his age 22 season in low class A. That is not a death sentence, but the very large majority of guys with this profile don't make any sort of significant impact at the major league level. Doubront is a young lefty with mediocre stuff that might not improve. If his stuff makes a leap forward, look out. Otherwise, the sad truth is that there's a good bet he's not even in the organization in 2.5 years. Eamonn Portice? Well, he turned 23 three days ago. Long odds for a Sally League pitcher, even if he has good K/BB and GB numbers.

You could go back to 2004 on these boards and find threads pimping Jarrett Gardner, who had a 2.51 ERA in Augusta's rotation despite being a righty with a mid-80s fastball. Unsurprisingly, at higher levels he was absolutely crushed and didn't last much longer. I wish Adam Mills well, but I'm not holding my breath. Incidentally, an unheralded 8th round OFer on that Augusta team broke out to the BA-heavy tune of 339/402/515 and despite cautious (in the context of being a top prospect) scouting reports, SP.com had Brandon Moss as the #2 prospect that offseason ahead of at least six guys who have already had more distinguished major league careers (Pedroia, Papelbon, Lester, Delcarmen, Shoppach, A. Sanchez, Murphy).

I recommend all SP posters to go into the Baseball Cube and look at Red Sox minor league rosters from the early 2000s. There is some classic stuff there and it gives you some perspective, although truth be told there's been more talent in our system than there was in that period.

That 2002 Augusta rotation trio of Manny Delcarmen, Phil Dumatrait, and Jerome Gamble? Man, I thought they were going to be anchors. That team also featured oft-injured lefty fireballers Kason Gabbard and Wil Ledezma. Injuries took some velocity from Gabbard but he was a stealth prospect at the time. Charlie Zink was a non-knuckling middle reliever. The starting catcher was freakin' 20 year old Edgar Martinez. He may have had a 642 OPS, but hey he had a good arm. Too bad he never got the hang of a good curveball. I also remember being absolutely devastated when we traded Dennis Tankersley for Ed Sprague. Haha. Oh, and Cesar Saba too, just to rub it in.

I wonder where Steve Lomasney and Seung Song are these days. Looking at old SP lists, I'm still boggling at the lower half of the mid-season 2003 list. Did we really suck that much??? Zak Basch and Arthur Santos? Ouch. They weren't even pie-in-the-sky-projectable GCL guys...just low round college pitchers. Yikes.