Who Should Be the First Minor Leaguer Signed to a Long-Term Deal?

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Hairps	Who Should Be the First Minor Leaguer Signed to a Long-Term Deal?		Lead	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1773 05/16/08 2:51 PM Veteran Member	Tags : None There seems to have been a ton of deals recently where teams locked up young players. Will Carroll provides a list: Scott Kazmir: 3 years, $28.5 million Evan Longoria: 6 years, $17.5 million Ryan Braun: 8 years, $45 million David Wright: 6 years, $55 million Hanley Ramirez: 6 years , $70 million James Shields: 4 years, $11.25 million Troy Tulowitzki: 6 years, $31 million Fausto Carmona: 4 years, $15 million Some interesting discussion on this growing trend can be found here: Most recently, teams have begun locking in players with less and less experience. Since the end of last season, Troy Tulowitzki, Chris Young, Ryan Braun, and Longoria all signed deals that buy out free agent years, despite the fact that none of them were anywhere near being arbitration-eligible. While these are risky deals for both sides, they strongly favor the teams in terms of pure financial value. As industry revenues accelerate, the clubs are trading a small amount of risk (if the player completely craps out) in exchange for cost certainty and potentially large savings down the road. The players, in exchange, are guaranteed their first millions, which is certainly hard to turn down. http://squawkingbaseball.com/?p=112 One of the more interesting questions to me is when the first minor league player will be signed to a long-term MLB deal. Carroll mentions that Justin Upton last year would have made a lot of sense. I can buy that. What ml player would you sign to a long-term MLB deal? For how many years? For how much money? Why?
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soxprospects		#1	[url]	[-]
Moderator Veteran Member Posts: 3823 05/16/08 3:09 PM	Very interesting topic. Jay Bruce maybe should get some consideration, but I'm betting that the shoe doesn't drop on a team signing up a minor leaguer long-term for another year or two. soxprospects.com \| boston100.net
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Beat UM and UF		#2	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2484 05/16/08 3:19 PM Veteran Member	Is the Obama ad a product of Hairps cutting and pasting or is this the beginning of yuku advertising? Edit: Ugh. I'd love to see Boston try to ink Clay or Ellsbury to a nice deal, though I don't know if they will accept it knowing that when their current one ends Boston will be willing to offer a ton more. "What Mo's Knows, Mo's Goes!" Last Edited By: Beat UM and UF 05/16/08 3:34 PM. Edited 1 time.
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Lippa91		#3	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1530 05/16/08 3:25 PM	I'd probably go with Jay Bruce. I'm assuming that he'll be up for good sometime this year, and being that he's mashed at every level, I'm guessing he'll likely be producing at a relatively high level by 2009. He's going to end up making a ton in arb, a good chance to break award records, and then I'd risk not getting any of his prime because he'll be a free agent when he's 28. I'd try to ink him for 10 years/100 mil with escalating salaries. I think I'll end up saving money over the course of the contract if he performs to the level I expect, plus I also get at least part of his prime before he has the chance to walk out the door. "There's a reason why you wear this Red Sox uniform. Because you're a bad mother#@%&$." -- David Ortiz
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JimRiceRocks		#4	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 498 05/16/08 3:30 PM Veteran Member	I haven't heard baseball players talk of holding out in a long time - but does a team run that risk by signing a young stud to a 8-10 year contract and then they're unhappy with it in the final 3-4 years? If Jay Bruce or someone really breaks out and becomes a Manny in his prime, maybe he insists on redoing the deal. Then what did the long contract get you? Maybe still worth it, just curious if you think that could become an issue
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JacobyIsMyHomeboy		#5	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 249 05/16/08 3:57 PM Veteran Member	Based on Tampa Bay locking up Kazmir, Shields, and Longoria, i'd say they have the highest probability of locking up a minor leaguer, so my money goes on David Price I was just thinking about CFO the other day when I was in the shower. - TheGoldenGreek33 Plus I heard he grew 3 inches overnight. Not any taller, however. - klostrophobic
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chavopepe2		#6	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 718 05/16/08 4:03 PM Veteran Member	I like this topic. Generally I think fans look at these deals and assume they are always a great deal for the organization. The value of assuming all the risk for an unproven young player is tremendous. For instance, the 10 yr, 100 million contract for a player like Bruce just doesn't make sense for the organization IMO. It's essentially signing him to a 4 year $60 million extention SIX YEARS before he reaches free agency. The risk of injury, decline, or just generally not living up to expectations is not worth the savings at this point. With this contract you are assuming he will be one of the best players in the league for the next 10 years. I don't think that's a wise assumption to make before his first professional game. To put it in perspective, guys like Hanley and Wright got similar AAV after PROVING they were amongst the best in the league. Braun and Tulowitski got about half the AAV. I do think a 10 year $50 million deal makes some sense for both sides.
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Buzzkill Pauley		#7	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 151 05/16/08 4:57 PM	Pedro Alvarez
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Curll84		#8	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 171 05/16/08 5:07 PM	Kershaw, maybe. Always a risk with pitchers, but who knows what will happen. If I were running a team, I would not do these deals until they hit arb. But, hey, what do I know?
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chavopepe2		#9	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 718 05/17/08 5:44 PM Veteran Member	For anyone wondering why these players sign for what is apparently below market value, I hop you just heard Ryan Braun's interview.
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AMarshal2		#10	[url]	[-]
Moderator Veteran Member Posts: 7199 05/17/08 6:04 PM Moderator	I'd be SHOCKED if it was a pitcher. I definitely think it would be a position player. Probably and up-the-middle type with good defense. The type of guy who's not a huge risk to have zero value (like a pitcher). "Since I stole that base I have not gone one day -- not one -- without someone coming and saying 'thank you.' You may never experience that, and I have it for life." -Dave Roberts
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jspearlj1		#11	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 4549 05/18/08 8:01 AM	I dont think there's any way its Bruce. If Krivsky were still in charge I'd say maybe, but I dont recall Jockety ever being a big buy out type of guy. He waited a until Pujols was arb ellidgeable to lock him up, so needless to say, Bruce is not likely to be the guy, especially since there's a good chance he'll be up fairly soon. If the DRays wise up and go with Alvarez then I'd agree with that one as a possibility, but still very unlikely because he's represented by Boras. Really though, its probably not happening for awhile. It takes a very special talent to take that risk and a team with a GM and ownership not only willing to do it, but comfortable as well. The teams that jump out as possibilities are the Rays, D'Backs and Indians with the Brewers as a possibility as well (However no chance with LaPorta, he's a Boras guy and no one yet knows where he's playing). Not to mention that a player who is that good to get that deal is usually getting a big league deal right away, so he's getting a fair deal of security (between 6-8 mil guaranteed), and for the team you have cost certainty for the early going and its not likely you're getting a decent discount if you rip that contract to shreds before he makes the bigs to sign another one. Conclusion: Very unlikely and I think Longoria's deal is probably the earliest deal we see for a long time, it took a very good player, an agressive and creative thinking GM with Ownserhip support but most importantly a player who is widely known to be a very team-oriented and down to Earth type of guy. That's a fairly unique situation. "I'll buy you a beer while we talk about our favorite 17 year old Dominicans while everyone around us thinks we are pedophiles" - Chach.
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Drew		#12	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 28 05/18/08 9:27 AM	This is a little off topic, but I would like to see the sox give some of the guys who are making a meaningful contribution (pedroia, paplebon, ellsbury, lester) more than just the minimum. I think paplebon had some great points when he had his little protest. It wouldn't kill the sox financially to give them all at least seven figures. I'm not saying give them market value by any means. But it would be nice to see them all get at least a million a year just to give them a little security financially.
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CMF16		#13	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 173 05/18/08 10:50 AM	Something like this is way too risky. It makes zero sense. With that being said, I expect Hank Steinbrenner to offer Jose Tabata a 10 year/20 million dollar deal.
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Forever Red 9		#14	[url]	[-]
Moderator Veteran Member Posts: 2323 05/18/08 10:59 AM Moderator	What exactly is market value though? I've seen studies saying a playing is worth $2 million fo every win, but those are fatally flawed because salary is only partially determined by performance. A key factor that needs to be added in is experience. Veterans make more money solely because of their experience. Papelbon will definitely be getting his due when arbitration starts, but if he has a successful career, he will be overpaid in his 30s, which will even out his lifetime salary. That's how it is and how it probably always will be. Unless the payment structure changes from a salary based occupation to a bonus based occupation. I can see the MLBPA fighting to create standard bonuses for players with less than 3 years of experience.
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Cem21		#15	[url]	[-]
Moderator Veteran Member Posts: 1013 05/18/08 11:10 AM Veteran Member	Drew wrote: This is a little off topic, but I would like to see the sox give some of the guys who are making a meaningful contribution (pedroia, paplebon, ellsbury, lester) more than just the minimum. I think paplebon had some great points when he had his little protest. It wouldn't kill the sox financially to give them all at least seven figures. I'm not saying give them market value by any means. But it would be nice to see them all get at least a million a year just to give them a little security financially. The Sox re-upped all of their guys this year without renewing anyone. They gave all of the guys very fair deals. None of the mentioned guys are making the league minimum this season. Papelbon is making 775K with a 25K all-star bonus. Pedroia got 457K. Ellsbury, Delcarmen, and Lester are make more than 400K. These are guys with one year of service time. The Sox have been more than fair with these players and made it a point to reward them over the minimum. To be honest, if all of these young guys playing have such a problem with the system, they should form a group and take it up with their Players' "Union." That is what it is organized for. On the topic: A talent like Ken Griffey, Jr. or Alex Rodriguez when they were drafted would probably be the best bets to get a long term deal. Everyone was pretty much just waiting for them to reach the Big Leagues. With the way that the top guys fly through the minors these days though and you would think that a talent like a Griffey would get a MLB deal, it seems like it would be taken care of more along the lines of Longoria and Braun than when they are in the Minors.
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Drew		#16	[url]	[-]
Rookie Posts: 28 05/18/08 11:17 AM	I think the problem is someone like paplebon has done a ~$10 million job the last few years and has only received ~$500K a year. I could see someone like him being concerned about not making it to the big payday in his 30's where he has already had shoulder problems.
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Cem21		#17	[url]	[-]
Moderator Veteran Member Posts: 1013 05/18/08 11:26 AM Veteran Member	Drew wrote: I think the problem is someone like paplebon has done a ~$10 million job the last few years and has only received ~$500K a year. I could see someone like him being concerned about not making it to the big payday in his 30's where he has already had shoulder problems. That's the nature of life though. Papelbon has to assess his own situation and do what he feels is best for him. Papelbon didn't want to sign a long term deal in the Spring that would cause him to give up a year or two of Free Agency. He'd probably be pretty well set with a deal like that, but he wants to maximize his earning power. More power to him, but like with just about anything there are always risks. If someone like him is concerned with not making it to his 30's, then sign a long term deal that may be a little less than the huge payday, but would obviously set them up for life.
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raftsox		#18	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 298 05/18/08 12:16 PM	Drew wrote: I think the problem is someone like paplebon has done a ~$10 million job the last few years and has only received ~$500K a year. I could see someone like him being concerned about not making it to the big payday in his 30's where he has already had shoulder problems. as Cem21 already mentioned, paps didn't want to sign a "team friendly" long term deal in an effort to maximize his earning potential. He alluded to that point in ST of '07 when he talked to theo. he said something along the lines of he's willing to take a career paycut to be a closer but still mentioned some pretty hefty sums; meaning that he expects to be paid very well for his services. He'll get that starting next year in arb, and if he stays healthy this season then there's good chance the fo works on a long term contract with him covering his arb years and 3-4 more. I imagine the sox will act this way with most of their young players: when they reach arbitration try to sign them for a long-term deal. We hit Wang well - southernsoxreality
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raftsox		#19	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 298 05/18/08 12:18 PM	chavopepe2 wrote: For anyone wondering why these players sign for what is apparently below market value, I hop you just heard Ryan Braun's interview. i did not. what was the gist of it? We hit Wang well - southernsoxreality
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ArodSucksAtLife		#20	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2363 05/18/08 12:32 PM Veteran Member	raftsox wrote: Drew wrote: I think the problem is someone like paplebon has done a ~$10 million job the last few years and has only received ~$500K a year. I could see someone like him being concerned about not making it to the big payday in his 30's where he has already had shoulder problems. as Cem21 already mentioned, paps didn't want to sign a "team friendly" long term deal in an effort to maximize his earning potential. He alluded to that point in ST of '07 when he talked to theo. he said something along the lines of he's willing to take a career paycut to be a closer but still mentioned some pretty hefty sums; meaning that he expects to be paid very well for his services. He's also said that he feels an almost obligation to set the new pay scale for elite young closers in the game. Like Mariano Rivera did before him etc. I gonna have to take a dump on Lugo... Maybe my magic translates to him. -norbit14
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chavopepe2		#21	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 718 05/18/08 2:47 PM Veteran Member	raftsox wrote: chavopepe2 wrote: For anyone wondering why these players sign for what is apparently below market value, I hop you just heard Ryan Braun's interview. i did not. what was the gist of it? He mentioned that, even though it may be unlikely, injuries do happen. By signing the $45 million deal he is set for life and eliminates any risk. His last sentence was, "after all there isn't a lot you can't do with $45 million." Basically, even if you only put it at a 1% chance that he doesn't ever see his first big contract, that alone isn't worth the risk. The difference between $100 million and $45 million isn't nearly as big (in a practical sense) as the difference between $45 million and $1 million.
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raftsox		#22	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 298 05/18/08 3:00 PM	chavopepe2 wrote: raftsox wrote: chavopepe2 wrote: For anyone wondering why these players sign for what is apparently below market value, I hop you just heard Ryan Braun's interview. i did not. what was the gist of it? He mentioned that, even though it may be unlikely, injuries do happen. By signing the $45 million deal he is set for life and eliminates any risk. His last sentence was, "after all there isn't a lot you can't do with $45 million." Basically, even if you only put it at a 1% chance that he doesn't ever see his first big contract, that alone isn't worth the risk. The difference between $100 million and $45 million isn't nearly as big (in a practical sense) as the difference between $45 million and $1 million. thanks. he makes a lot of sense which is probably the reason you see this rash of signings. the young guys realize that a lot can happen to derail their careers and the teams that are financially limited know that some players will be willing to sign these contracts to avoid that possibility. We hit Wang well - southernsoxreality
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