Johan Santana trade thread 2

Author	Comment
weihbe6	Johan Santana trade thread 2		Lead	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 170 12/23/07 4:10 PM	Tags : None Santana clause Here's the skinny on a possible deal for Johan Santana. The Red Sox would break from their philosophy of not giving out long-term deals for Santana. They'd prefer fewer than the seven years agent Peter Greenberg is seeking but will go there for one of the top two or three pitchers. Since the winter meetings, nothing has changed with Boston's offer, but after the New Year things are expected to get down to the nitty-gritty, when Minnesota will expect the Yankees and Red Sox to give their final "best offer." The Sox are still offering Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Jed Lowrie. If the Yankees don't include Ian Kennedy, the Red Sox will land him. As to the growing theory that Josh Beckett would be bent out of shape over Santana earning twice as much, forget it. Beckett signed the contract and knew what he was doing. source: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2007/12/23/perry_cuts_to_the_chase/?page=full Who knows, maybe after Christmas something will happen. I'd be perfectly fine with this deal
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Union4Sox		#1	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 172 12/23/07 4:14 PM	If the Yankees don't throw Kennedy in to make that deal they are just stupid. I can see if the hitch is an Ellsbury/Buchholz/Chamberlain type player, but Kennedy? It almost scares me b/c if the Yanks get the deal if they add Kennedy I can't imagine them balking
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Soxfanstuckincolorado	Santana	#2	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 125 12/23/07 5:14 PM Veteran Member	The Yanks really do not want to trade Phil Hughes, personally I think they are trying to stay in it to drive up the cost, but they will not include both Hughes and Kennedy, or I should say that I would be shocked to see a 4 player trade including both of them. Also do not think for a second that Hughes is not in the same category that Clay and Joba are in, he is right there, if anything I would say that Ellsbury is the outsider of that group.
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chavopepe2		#3	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 868 12/23/07 5:30 PM Veteran Member	I agree with you that in terms of prospect status Elsbury is the outsider. I'm not sure however, that in the context of this trade he is less valuable to the Twins. It isn't as simple as adding up ther prospect status' to determine the value of the package. The Twins clearly would prefer a package including multiple young position players over a package too top heavy with pitching. Despite what is being said, I'm not convinced Ian Kennedy would put the Yankees over the top for the Twins.
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Steve of Charlotte	Yea Theo!	#4	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 372 12/23/07 6:11 PM	Theo Epstein has kept his mind about him by not just jumping into this situation like a young school girl with a crush. The offer that has been stated close to 2000 times is FAIR for both sides...especially when a 6 to 7 year extension for 25 million per year is factored in. If this deal, FINALLY, goes down, the Twins will have pulled off a nice reaction to a difficult situation. Very possibly they will have obtained 2/5 of their rotation for the next 5 to 6 years. Both kids are solid! They will have picked up a solid middle infielder who quite conceiveably will hit .290 to .300 with 40 doubles a year, and an outstanding CF who will probably have better numbers in Minnesota (or at least a chip they can trade for some more good prospects). THIS IS THE ONLY TRADE I WOULD MAKE FOR SANTANA. There is no reason to sweeten the pot. There is no reason to add Ellsbury. If this deal, as stated, is not enough....who cares! We won the WS last year, and have two outstanding additions to make us even better in Ellsbury and Buchholz. It would be nice, but is not the end of the world if it doesn't come off. The surprise is that it hasn't taken place by now. The Red Sox could easily have been impressed by an offer for Crisp, and blown this potential trade fully out of the water. The Twins, in a way, are playing a dangerous game. The last thing, I believe, they want to happen is to lose Santana for just a couple of draft picks who may or may not even "snif" the big leagues. Actually the Twins may be better in 2009, and with lots of nice young talent.
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Union4Sox		#5	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 172 12/23/07 6:20 PM	I agree that Hughes is in the same category as Buchholz, Chamberlain and yes, I would include Ellsbury. If you are going to be Joba in the category, how can you not include Ellsbury? Both are late season phenoms who helped their teams immensely and both have tools that are knocked on my scouts. For Jacoby its his lack of power and for Joba it is his ability to start and his past injury problems. Obviously, pitchers are more valuable in this league so Joba is valued more than Ellsbury, but I think both are similar. So I think all 4 players are in the same league. Hell, you can't leave Lester out either. Many people are saying that he will have be dominant next year and a lot of us forget that we haven't seen him pitch a full season yet in the big leagues. So those are 5 high caliber prospects and the Yankees have already stated they will include Hughes. So my point is, why wouldn't they throw in Kennedy? Hughes is the biggest piece of the puzzle, so why balk at Kennedy?
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hockeypuck2008		#6	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1871 12/23/07 6:21 PM Veteran Member	the only reason why Ellsbury is the outsider is because he is an outfielder. Pitching is the most valuable commodity in baseball. It is why arms are so hard to come by. Ellsbury is just as talented in the position he plays as are Buchholz, Hughes, and Chamberlain are in theirs. However because pitching is so vital to a teams success and the fact the quality of pitching throughout baseball is so watered down it is the only reason why Ellsbury is the outsider. But that is by no means an indication of less talent. Truth is Ellsbury could be the no#1 ranked centerfielder in baseball and you still couldnt trade him straight up for the 10th rated pitcher in baseball. It is why you see guys like Carlos Silva get the same money as Aaron Rowand. That is just the way it is because the pitching depth is so thin but it is NOT an indicator of less talent in the outfielder.
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flap1919		#7	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2768 12/23/07 6:21 PM	If the Twins were smart, they would attempt to make this a 3 team deal, where they send Crisp (and perhaps Nathan) to another team immediately, they have no use for Coco the next two years, his salary is too high for them during the time where they won't be good enough to compete. They need a CFer of the future, not an aging speedster that can't hit for power or leadoff. They should make sure they can get what they want for Crisp elsewhere before they jump into this.
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RedSoxFan2		#8	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 644 12/23/07 10:50 PM	If the Twins were smart, they would attempt to make this a 3 team deal, where they send Crisp (and perhaps Nathan) to another team immediately, they have no use for Coco the next two years, his salary is too high for them during the time where they won't be good enough to compete. They need a CFer of the future, not an aging speedster that can't hit for power or leadoff. They should make sure they can get what they want for Crisp elsewhere before they jump into this. This doesn't make any sense. Crisp has a very cheap 2 year deal, plays the best CF defense in the game, and has tremendous speed. The Twins are an organization that value small ball and do not emphasize much on power. He doesn't have high OBP skills, so that does hurt his value to them. How is Crisp an aging speedster? Marge: Homer, the plant called. They said if you don't show up tomorrow don't bother showing up on Monday. Homer: Woo-hoo. Four-day weekend. Last Edited By: RedSoxFan2 12/23/07 11:00 PM. Edited 1 time.
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ozebaseball		#9	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1396 12/24/07 2:09 AM	not an aging speedster that can't hit for power or leadoff Can we stop with this dumb shit? It seems a lot of regular people who post quite insightful stuff have let rationality and clear thought go to the wind and are posting stuff that not only is ill formed opinion but just plain wrong.
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flap1919		#10	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2768 12/24/07 9:03 AM	Main point is that to them, he is old, and by the time they'll compete he'll no longer be under contract. I didn't say he was over the hill, but they would probably want someone under 25 (also known to some as a PROSPECT), Coco is not an ideal fit in Minnesota. He is a speedster (that is not in their ideal age/contract range) that can't hit for power or leadoff, I fail to see how that is a crazy comment. Coco's contract is cheap in Boston, but not great for a team essentially waiving the white flag in 08. I don't see why they would want to pay Coco anything during a time when they have no shot of finishing higher than 3rd in their division (though they are probably only better than KC next year). Their goal should be to hope to get lucky in 09, and compete for real in 2010, Coco Crisp is not their CF of the future, and a man that I don't think will age well (once the speed slows, he's got next to nothing left). Last Edited By: flap1919 12/24/07 9:27 AM. Edited 1 time.
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Arquimedez Bozo		#11	[url]	[-]
Moderator Veteran Member Posts: 5103 12/24/07 10:29 AM Moderator	Flap, what makes you think he's going to get paid much more if he continues to play at the level he's been at the last couple of years? You don't get a big pay raise for being below average at the plate, no matter how good your defense is. For that reason, he might still be in the Twins' price range when his current contract is up. EDIT: Not putting words in your mouth, it's just that when players' contracts are up, that seems to be the implication. I'm just making the point that I think he may stay in the Twins' price range past his current contract, making him a more attractive option to them than some other teams. "they should go to soxprospect so that BOZO THE CLOWN and the rest of THE WANTS TO BE will give you some information" - A SP.com Legend "A doubleheader is better than tipping the other team off the side of a cliff." - Cin1010 Last Edited By: Arquimedez Bozo 12/24/07 10:32 AM. Edited 1 time.
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flap1919		#12	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2768 12/24/07 11:28 AM	I just think they'd be better off trying to flip Coco to another team, and instead of waiting, they should do it now while they can still play off of Boston. I just think Minny should go for the Florida method of young upside guys that are not eligible for a pay raise for at least a year or two (Delmon Young for instance was a great move). Why waste 10 million on Coco the next two years, when you could spend that money elsewhere (on an extension for someone else in the long-term plans). If Coco is such a valuable commodity, as many of you make him out to be, they should have no trouble acquiring a younger, cheaper player or two that will be more benificial to their team in the LONG-TERM. Coco isn't a great quick fix (because they are going to suck with or without him) or long-term solution in my mind because he simply isn't anything special. Coco has value in the majors, but it shouldn't be on a small market team with no chance of making the playoffs the next two years, they need someone to develop along with Young, Liriano, and Mauer. Coco should go to a team that is close to making the playoffs, not a rebuilding team. His value is in his contract relative to what it would cost to acquire/sign another CF who can compete right now and help a team make the playoffs. Last Edited By: flap1919 12/24/07 11:34 AM. Edited 2 times.
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TNS		#13	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3304 12/24/07 12:03 PM	Big Papi doesn't think Johan's leaving Minnesota...
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ancientsoxfogey		#14	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3104 12/24/07 2:42 PM Veteran Member	It appears more like Papi thinks Santana isn't coming to Boston. That's a slightly different statement.
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TNS		#15	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3304 12/24/07 3:31 PM	ancientsoxfogey wrote: It appears more like Papi thinks Santana isn't coming to Boston. That's a slightly different statement. What I took away from that was Ortiz thinks it's in the Twins best interest to keep Johan Santana (and that the Twins aren't going to make the mistake of letting him go). The Twins are arguably a better team now than they were last season and they're getting Liriano back too. It's in the Twins' (and baseball's) best interest for Johan to stay in Minnesota. Right now (assuming Johan stays a Twin) they are a top-of-the-order CF away from posing a major threat to the Tigers now whether it be signing Lofton or Corey Patterson or trading for someone like Crisp, Tony Gwynn Jr., or Ryan Freel. The Twins bullpen is strong, their rotation is getting healthy and their lineup is fairly deep. It's not like they are in a forced rebuilding mode, they are a better team without trading Santana and a contender now. They have one of the wealthiest owners and he should show the commitment to winning by hanging onto their bonafide ace.
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RedSoxFan2		#16	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 644 12/24/07 4:46 PM	The Twins owner bought the team because it is a business that will make him money, signing Johan will turn profits into a deficit. There is only one owner in baseball who has used his own money to fund a team and that was George Steinbrenner. It is a little unfair to criticize owners for not taking funds out of their own pocket to build a team. To them, it's a source of revenue. I don't think most owners really care as much about the team as long as it generates revenue. Ortiz can't see Johan coming here, but he is nothing more than a fan on the matter. Unless someone told him something of significance (which I highly doubt), what he has to say has no real bearing. Crisp won't make much more if he continues to hit at the level he is at. But even than, he is still better than the crap they are using now and he is the best defender in the game with speed. He is a very cheap contract (considering what other FA are making) and is why someone like Kalish is going to be apart of the deal. When Crisp's contract runs out, they might have a viable replacement with a good prospect. Marge: Homer, the plant called. They said if you don't show up tomorrow don't bother showing up on Monday. Homer: Woo-hoo. Four-day weekend.
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Bosox301		#17	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 1151 12/24/07 5:47 PM	TNS wrote: Big Papi doesn't think Johan's leaving Minnesota... Several years ago, Big Papi claimed that Pedro wouldn't sign with the Mets. . . "If I was a GM and I was trading with somebody and I knew I was going to get minor leaguers in return, I'd come to our organization before I went to anyone else. Everybody that comes out of our organization knows how to play the game." --Josh Beckett
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Chach Collins		#18	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 2140 12/24/07 11:53 PM	The Tiggers just added one of the top 5 hitters in baseball and replaced Brandon frickin Inge in the line-up with him. Adding Tony Gwynn Jr isn't going to get the Twins over the top of the Tigers. It's been around a year since Liriano had surgery, he isn't going to just come back like nothing. He is likely to struggle with control all season. Not to mention the fact that the Indians are an extremely strong team, as are the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Twins don't stand a chance of getting to the playoffs unless there are some major injuries on the Tigers and Indians rosters. It would be best for Minny long term to keep Santana but they are going to be an 85-89 win team this season, they may be realistically out of the playoffs before September starts. If they could sign him, they'd keep him but it appears less and less likely that will happen so the best move, long term, would be to move him for the best package possible. mahalo ~Chach~
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TNS		#19	[url]	[-]
Veteran Member Posts: 3304 12/25/07 2:13 PM	Chach Collins wrote: The Tiggers just added one of the top 5 hitters in baseball and replaced Brandon frickin Inge in the line-up with him. Adding Tony Gwynn Jr isn't going to get the Twins over the top of the Tigers. It's been around a year since Liriano had surgery, he isn't going to just come back like nothing. He is likely to struggle with control all season. Not to mention the fact that the Indians are an extremely strong team, as are the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Twins don't stand a chance of getting to the playoffs unless there are some major injuries on the Tigers and Indians rosters. It would be best for Minny long term to keep Santana but they are going to be an 85-89 win team this season, they may be realistically out of the playoffs before September starts. If they could sign him, they'd keep him but it appears less and less likely that will happen so the best move, long term, would be to move him for the best package possible. mahalo ~Chach~ It's easy to be blinded by the Tigers getting Miguel Cabrera and think they are unstoppable. The Tigers still have significant flaws... especially in the bullpen. They still have question marks in the rotation with Willis's struggles from last year and adjusting to the AL, Bonderman's health and inability to turn the corner, how much Kenny Rogers has left in the tank, and Nate Robertson was awful last year (lefties hit .296). Yes, the Tigers offense is among the best in baseball now but that alone isn't going to make them a lock for the postseason. The Indians were one of the strongest all-around teams in baseball last season but they also have question marks. How much do Sabathia & Carmona have left in the tank after hitting the wall in the playoffs? (Remember what being rode too hard did to the White Sox rotation after their World Series run?) Asdrubal Cabrera played over his head last season and was a poor defender. Who are the outfielders other than Sizemore? The AL Central (& Wildcard too) is hardly decided already. The Twins were dealing with key injuries for most of last season (Liriano and Mauer immediately come to mind). They've replaced Hunter with Delmon Young. They've still got Morneau, Mauer, & Cuddyer in the middle of that lineup. It's one thing if Johan didn't want to stay but it seems like he genuinely does (or at least did). If he wants to stay, it's in their best interest to hang onto him. Someone like Nathan is more expendable to the team than Santana and doesn't plan to stay with the team. The Twins can compete now. It's a waste of time and energy to determine winners on paper as we can't accurately forecast injuries and player development. The point I was trying to make is that the teams that are assumed to be ahead of the Twins have plenty of issues too. The Twins with Johan Santana can make a splash.
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Johan Santana trade thread 2

Johan Santana trade thread 2